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May. 26, 2014
Dr. Uriel Haran of GGFBM Department of Management and his colleague Don Moore of University of California Berkley Haas School of Business, on their research into forecasting, and a method they've devised called SPIES (Subjective Probability Interval EStimates)

A Simple Tool for Making Better Forecasts,

One of the most basic keys to good decision-making is accurate forecasting of the future. In order to bring about the best outcomes, a company must correctly anticipate the most likely future states of the world. Yet despite its importance, companies not only routinely make basic forecasting mistakes, they also shoot themselves in the foot by applying procedures that make accurate predictions harder to achieve.
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