Zoom Link
Speaker: Dr. Yoav Ram
Abstract:
During Feb-Apr 2020, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as school closures and lockdowns, with variable schedules, to control the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Overall, these interventions seem to have reduced the spread of the pandemic. We hypothesize that the official and effective start date of such interventions can be noticeably different, for example due to slow adoption by the population, or because the authorities and the public are unprepared. We fit an SEIR model to case data from 12 regions to infer the effective start dates of interventions and contrast them with the official dates. We find mostly late, but also early effects of interventions. For example, Italy implemented a nationwide lockdown on Mar 11, but we infer the effective date on Mar 17. In contrast, Germany announced a lockdown on Mar 22, but we infer an effective start date on Mar 19.We demonstrate that differences between the official and effective start of NPIs can lead to under-estimating their impact, and discuss potential causes and consequences of our results.
Bio:
Dr. Yoav Ram earned a BSc in Mathematics and Biology, followed by a Ph.D. in Theoretical Biology via a direct Ph.D. track, both from Tel Aviv University. He was a Postdoctoral Fellow of the Center for Computational, Evolutionary, and Human Genomics at Stanford University and a Senior Lecturer in the School of Computer Science at IDC Herzliya, before joining the School of Zoology at Tel Aviv University. Yoav is a member of the Sagol School of Neuroscience and the Center for Combatting Pandemics, and an affiliate member of the Safra Center of Bioinformatics.
The Ram lab studies evolutionary biology, ecology, cultural evolution, and epidemiology using computational, mathematical, and statistical models and collaborations with experimental biologists.
http://www.yoavram.com
