Abstract
Because rainfall is so uncertain a resource, drought can suddenly strike areas that commonly enjoy plentiful precipitation. In the United States, for example, abnormally low precipitation will hit at least one region every year, often bringing significant agricultural loss to that locale.
Major catastrophic droughts, however, are triggered by a drastic shortage of rainfall over a wide area which lasts for several years. In developing nations, they have led to famine, starvation and the displacement of millions, and in developed countries, to major economic upheavals.
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Drought and desertification are sometimes spoken of in similar terms, as they both lead to a drop in vegetative growth triggered by insufficient rainfall. But their long-range effects can differ. Droughts refer to acute situations that can quickly reverse when precipitation returns to normal. Desertification — although aggravated by drought — is generally a chronic process of land degradation that may result from inappropriate governmental development programs in areas with arid to sub-humid climates.
Because of the “unpredictable” and often catastrophic nature of droughts, most experts do not speak of preventing them or even reversing their effects. Specialists, such as Prof. Hendrik J. Bruins at the Social Studies Unit of the BIDR Department of Man in the Desert, take a double approach to drought. Their watchwords are preparedness and contingency planning, the same paradigm used for overcoming the effects of hurricanes, floods and earthquakes. Prof. Bruins has examined contingency approaches for nomadic pastoralists in two different drought-prone regions — in Kenya and in Israel’s Negev. Rainwater harvesting was shown to work well in increasing grazing vegetation, although the heavy earth-moving work, which is usually beyond the capacities of nomadic populations, needs to be expanded if this method is to succeed.
With the projected growth of world population over the next twenty-five years, Prof. Bruins warns that a future major drought — particularly in China or India — could result in a breakdown in the infrastructure of grain production. This situation would result in food shortages throughout the world. Bruins’ solution is to massively expand grain reserves, particularly in large countries, such as China, India and the United States. This reservoir of staple cereals would tide over the food supply until local yields return to normal.
Drought and Famine
Fragile Twenty-First Century Food Infrastructure
Breakdowns in Food Infrastructure
The solution
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