מחקר חדש של הדוקטורנטית סתיו שפריא מהמחלקה לרפואת חירום, אשר התפרסם החודש בכתב העת PLOS הציג מודל חישובי חדיש לאומדן קורנות לאחר רעידת אדמה.
An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel.
the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard.